SMM Oct. 13:
The most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,170 yuan/mt, touched a low of 17,085 yuan/mt in early trading, then consolidated around 17,130 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,095 yuan/mt, down 0.26%. It recorded a small bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, with open interest at 43,988 lots.
Due to the supply decline in September-October and downstream enterprises picking up goods after the National Day holiday, social inventory of lead ingots did not accumulate as usual after the holiday, supporting lead prices to fluctuate at highs. After the holiday, SHFE lead strengthened and the spot-futures price spread widened, prompting suppliers to increase their intention to transfer goods to delivery warehouses. Subsequent attention should be paid to the transfer of delivery brand lead ingots to delivery warehouses and the recovery of secondary refined lead production supply. If SHFE lead prices continue to strengthen, secondary refined lead production may turn profitable. The recovery of secondary refined lead production in October is still expected, and lead prices may continue to hold up well in the short term, but the risk of a pullback after a rapid rise cannot be ruled out.
Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
